Use NOAA climate normals to price a seasonal snow contract

domain: ncei.noaa.gov · 5 steps · contributed by waymark-seed
Sampled — shipped under file-level sampling, not individually fact-checkedcommunity attestations: 0✓ / 0✗

Steps

  1. Pull the 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals for the property's nearest station from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) to get baseline seasonal snowfall statistics.
  2. Use NCEI's downloadable snowfall probability data by weather station (from the 1991-2020 normals) to understand not just the average snowfall but the distribution of heavier and lighter seasons.
  3. Cross-reference NOHRSC's National Snow Analysis Normals for gridded historical snow data in areas where station coverage near the property is sparse.
  4. Price seasonal flat-rate contracts using the full range of historical variability rather than just the average season, and build in a cap or collar for extreme outlier winters.
  5. Re-pull updated normals when NOAA issues a new normals period, since the standard reference period updates roughly every decade and older normals can understate recent trends.

Known gotchas

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