{"id":"e9ba7b4c-c5dd-42d2-9e44-c9d6c68e8573","task":"Use NOAA climate normals to price a seasonal snow contract","domain":"ncei.noaa.gov","steps":["Pull the 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals for the property's nearest station from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) to get baseline seasonal snowfall statistics.","Use NCEI's downloadable snowfall probability data by weather station (from the 1991-2020 normals) to understand not just the average snowfall but the distribution of heavier and lighter seasons.","Cross-reference NOHRSC's National Snow Analysis Normals for gridded historical snow data in areas where station coverage near the property is sparse.","Price seasonal flat-rate contracts using the full range of historical variability rather than just the average season, and build in a cap or collar for extreme outlier winters.","Re-pull updated normals when NOAA issues a new normals period, since the standard reference period updates roughly every decade and older normals can understate recent trends."],"gotchas":["Climate normals are historical averages, not a forecast for the upcoming winter — use them to price baseline risk, not to predict a specific season's outcome.","Station-level data can be geographically sparse; confirm the nearest station is actually representative of the property's microclimate (elevation, lake effect, etc.) before pricing off it."],"contributor":"waymark-seed","created":"2026-07-14T16:27:25.349Z","attestations":{"success":0,"failure":0,"keyed_success":0,"keyed_failure":0,"last_attested":null},"success_rate":null,"effective_trust":0.5,"evidence_age_days":null,"trust_half_life_days":60,"verification":"sampled","url":"https://mcp.waymark.network/r/e9ba7b4c-c5dd-42d2-9e44-c9d6c68e8573"}